Wednesday, August 30,2023 – by Tommy Liberty

There are many misconceptions, misrepresentations, and outright misstatements being spewed by national pundits and political candidates about the Wisconsin vote, particularly in reference to the 2020 elections. In the following several paragraphs I will outline decades of general elections in Wisconsin, gubernatorial trends in voter turnout by county and party, tactics used to impact that turnout, the resulting voting margins, and finally–ways to mitigate the trends. There is substantial data included within the article that is a product of many weeks of research.

History

Wisconsin voters have a history of compartmentalizing the issues facing them either directly or indirectly at both the State and Federal levels. That is how the State historically found itself in such a battleground position when it came to national races. While Wisconsin enjoys a super-majority conservative legislature, we most recently elected a liberal governor and a liberal president.

The fringe noise at either end of the political spectrum sees that as malicious disparity. From their lens, certainly something must be conspiratorial with the process for people to have such wide-ranging viewpoints within the same state.

That noise is an insult to the Wisconsin Constitution and electoral system, however. The only foul play happening is within the usual partisan politicking at the grassroots level, which democrats have beaten conservatives at for decades.

The larger truth is that Wisconsinites are passionate about the issues that face them at all levels, and historically haven’t been single-issue voters. What happens within their communities compared to what happens within the country or even within the global community isn’t always the perfect balance of priority. This cultivates a much more independent-minded voting base than what is found in many other states that are more polarized. Wisconsinites are far less likely to vote a straight-party ticket during elections that qualify both state and federal races. This is even more true when local races are on the ballot.

In its 175-year history, Wisconsin has elected 15 liberal governors and 32 conservative governors. The most recent Conservative Governor, Scott Walker, led the State for 8 years (2011-2019) prior to the current Democrat Tony Evers, during nearly the entire Obama presidency. Walker was also the first sitting Governor in the history of the United States to survive a recall attempt. Wisconsin voters soundly supported conservative Walker while overwhelmingly voting for democratic Obama at the very same time.

Such a dichotomy of political thought perfectly exemplifies the balance of power between the state and federal government as laid out by the Federalists and Anti-Federalists at the Constitutional Convention.

(While it is very easy to critique votes in hindsight, remember that all citizens pull these levers with the best information they have at the time concerning the issues that impact their lives the most in those moments. Furthermore, every state has vested interests that vary depending on local, state, federal, and even international partnerships. Civics is complicated, which is why it’s so important for every citizen to be both educated and to get involved!)

Independent Voters

The independent vote in Wisconsin overwhelmingly goes one of two ways, either to the liberal candidate or to the independent candidate. It is very rare that a conservative candidate wins by proxy of the independent vote in Wisconsin. Consider the 1992, 1996, and 2016 General Elections in the state to understand how significant the impact of this vote is. When Ross Perot ran as the third-party candidate in 1992 he received 22.1% of the vote in Wisconsin. He lost 9.5% of that vote by time the 1996 election was over. The liberal vote gained 7.6% while the conservative vote gained only 1.7% of that independent vote in 1996, in Wisconsin.

Wisconsin saw its highest third-party vote total in 20 years during the 2016 general election, when 6.3% of independent voters turned out for Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson or Green Party candidate, Jill Stein. (The nationwide independent vote margin was just 2.4%. Nearly three times as many Wisconsin voters turned out for the independent candidates compared to the rest of the country, rather than voter for either Trump or Clinton). Donald Trump’s margin of victory over Hillary Clinton in the State of Wisconsin in 2016 was only 0.7%. His victory was a product of the independent voters choosing a third-party candidate. Had they followed historical voting trends, Trump would have lost Wisconsin by 130,000 votes to Hillary Clinton.

Over the past 9 General Election cycles (aside from the 2016 anomaly), Wisconsin has overwhelmingly voted for the democrat candidate for president. Even in 1988 when George H. W. Bush won 42 states and an impressive 53.4% of the national vote, Wisconsin was one of only 8 states to vote for Michael Dukakis–by a significant margin of 51.4% to 47.8%.

Wisconsin voters not only voted for both Bill Clinton and Barrack Obama in landslide numbers, but they also voted for both Al Gore and John Kerry over George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, respectively.

When it comes to the General Election, conservatives in both the nation and within the State of Wisconsin need to digest the inconvenient truth that Democrats have had the better finger on the pulse of the state since the late 1980’s.

The independent vote that turned out for the third party candidate in 2016? It returned to its trend and turned out for the democrat candidate–Biden–in 2020.

Voter Turnout

Conservatives have the advantage of population in the State of Wisconsin, but they lack the civic discipline and willpower to champion electable candidates and to see those candidates across the finish line. As of the 2022 gubernatorial elections, the Wisconsin Elections Commission had listed more than 2.2 million of the state’s 3.6 million registered voters (more than 61%) as living across the 56 conservative counties (by voting history), of Wisconsin’s 72 total counties. Yet Wisconsin still lost the Governor’s race by 91,000 votes.

The turnout in these counties was only 73.8%. Nearly 3 out of every 10 registered voters stayed home. The numbers are even more bleak for conservative voters who live in blue counties, and that is a big reason for the recent success that democrats have had. Democrat voters who reside in conservative counties are turning out to vote at a higher rate than conservative voters who reside in democrat counties. This pattern has increased over the last several election cycles, to the point that it is now effecting the margin of victory in a way that is doubly-adverse for conservatives in the state.

You may view a comprehensive spreadsheet of Wisconsin voting data by county for the past three election cycles here, sorted by tabs for each year:

When you consider the disparity in turnout to the number of registered voters and further consider the declining margin, conservatives left up to 389,000 votes at home in the 2018 election that saw Tony Evers just barely defeat Scott Walker by 29,000 votes. In 2022, Conservatives left nearly 600,000 votes at home while Tony Evers defeated Tim Michels by 91,000 votes. In the 2020 general election, conservatives left 250,000 votes at home in a presidential race decided by just 21,000 votes. (Potential votes are calculated by each county’s specific margin by party, multiplied by the difference in turnout).

Conservatives aren’t being cheated and they aren’t even being beaten, they are simply being lazy in Wisconsin when it comes to one of the most fundamental civic responsibilities a citizen has. If even just 1 out of every 10 conservative voters who sat home turned out to vote, many of these races wouldn’t even be close. This is important regardless of the county one lives in.

Advisory Referenda

Voter turnout is what ultimately decides the outcome of elections. In Wisconsin, Democrats have effectively driven that turnout the last two gubernatorial election cycles with advisory referenda. In an advisory referendum, the idea is that a legislative body places a proposed measure on the ballot to gauge the opinion of the electorate. The results of an advisory referendum are not binding, and governing bodies are not required to act in accordance with the majority opinion.

And in Wisconsin, in fact, no legislative body has even considered acting on the advisory referenda they place on the ballots. They aren’t put there to gauge opinion because the democrats placing them on the ballot know the opinion is useless from a legislative standpoint. They are only put there to drive voter turnout, knowing that their targeted base is woefully ignorant of the process and doesn’t understand that the referendum has no legal teeth–and zero chance of ever becoming law in Wisconsin.

In the most recent 2022 gubernatorial election, the most populous county in the State, Milwaukee, placed an advisory referendum on the ballot to have the State ban assault rifles. They knew there was zero chance of this ever passing law. Recall that we both have a supermajority conservative legislature and any binding referendum would need to be asked to the entire state, but democrats know and expect their voters to be too ignorant to understand this. Thus, driving more of them to the polls just to vote for the democrat candidate on the ballot because of the referendum question. This was a big play in 2022 when Democrats anticipated lower turnout because of Biden’s massive struggles with the the economy, COVID, and foreign policy. They countered that by appealing to the emotional vote, once again.

The question was worded so vaguely that it made no sense, yet 69% of Milwaukee County voters who showed up to the polls voted yes to it. (The Constitution doesn’t ban any firearms. Quite antithetically, it bans the government from infringing on the right of The People from owning them–sans descriptors).

“Should the Wisconsin Legislature prohibit the import, sale, manufacture, transfer, or possession of semi-automatic “military-style” firearms whose prohibition is allowed under the Wisconsin and United States Constitutions?“

WUWM, Milwaukee’s local NPR (government) affiliate, ran with a story prior to the election explaining the referendum to voters. They certainly did their best to coach liberal voters into turning out to take the scary rifles (that account for less than 3% of all firearms deaths) off the street.

Madison (Dane County) used an advisory referendum to overturn the state law on abortion. Again, with zero binding effect. In 2018, both of these counties used advisory referendum to legalize marijuana. In fact in 2018 they asked that question in the 6 most populous liberal counties in the state, which also happen to be home to some of the state’s larger universities.

The democrats prey on the emotions and civic ignorance of their base, while conservatives sit lazily on their hands doing nothing to counteract the messaging or to drive the vote against it. The Wisconsin GOP could play by the same rules, and use craftily-written advisory referendums of their own across the state to drive turnout, but they fail to adopt the same successful tactics being used against them time and time again.

In not one single instance in the last three election cycles was an advisory referendum question asked to the entire voting body of the state. That is because the stated policy was not and is not important to the democrats. In every instance, the questions were targeted at specific counties with a large populous in order to drive the vote. In each of those instances, democrats successfully drove turnout.

Restoring Hope

If conservatives want to restore the republic, the formula starts at home in their local communities. For Wisconsinites this means returning to the fundamental basics. Being present and engaged in your communities from the school board to the city council to your state representatives. It means having conversations with your neighbors about the adversities you share in common and how to come together to elect people who truly want to solve those issues. It starts with being informed, and coaching others on being informed and getting them to the polls when it matters most.

It also means stern conversations with State GOP members about getting ahead of the curve with democrat tactics, and using the same measures to drive turnout in conservative counties. Why are conservatives not submitting an advisory referendum in every single red county asking residents if they would like to make Wisconsin a constitutional carry state, for example? It would certainly pass the legislature, and if conservatives showed up to vote we just might be able to elect a governor who would sign it into law.

This is one simple example, but the concept is appropriate for any topic that the GOP feels could drive their voters to the polls. There just isn’t party leadership in the state with enough influence, integrity, or social bandwidth to make it happen across every county. Until that changes, the results in this article–backed up by substantial data–will continue to follow their trends. The same old-same old isn’t working. The Wisconsin GOP is as badly broken as the national GOP, and it’s time conservatives come to terms with that reality so that the party can evolve and reposition itself back to being a party with a practical and sustainable vision that it can deliver and follow through on.

Whether you’re looking to take a free refresher course on the US Constitution, learn how to submit a FOIA request, get in touch with your elected representatives, read about legislation being debated within the state or federal government, or trying to understand how the money you spend is being used by corporations toward political lobbying, you can find all of that information and more at the Our Government page on the Rucksack Radio website.

(Data used in this article was sourced from the Wisconsin Elections Commission, the Wisconsin Historical Society, and the Federal Elections Commission, with cursory validation through results posted by various media agencies across the political spectrum).

I strive to continuing living my constitutional oath every day, in an objective and honest manner consistent with our founding principles. If you appreciate the time and effort put into my presented material, you may support me here. Even the smallest donations help me continue to fight for the rights and voices of every American. I am so grateful for your help! Semper Fi!